This morning, I received a fascinating article from Larry Berg, one of my listeners. Larry created a formula to help measure a player/team's greatness on the basketball court. Using his formula, he has this year's UTEP men's basketball team as the greatest team statistically in the last 30 years. I'm including portions of Larry's article to better explain it.
This Miner basketball team the best since 1980?
The statistical science says “yes” – and by a pretty good margin
by Larry Berg
February 11, 2010
I know what all the die-hard Miner basketball fans must be thinking as they read this headline.
What??
This is the best UTEP men’s team to come along in the past 30 years? Better than the 2003-04 Billy Gillispie team with phenom juniors Omar Thomas and Fili Rivera? Better than the 1988-89 Don Haskins squad that won 26 games and touted three future NBA players (Tim Hardaway, Antonio Davis and Greg Foster)? Better than the 1983-84 team led by Fred Reynolds and Luster Goodwin that soared to number four in the nation after opening 15-0 and finished 27-4?
In a word – yes. Better than all of the above and better than any other UTEP team since 1980 as well. Of course, let’s remember this season is not yet over. And things can certainly change. The Miners have six regular season games yet to play, as many as three in the conference tournament, and any postseason games that will likely follow. But still – it’s fun to and exciting the see what this team has done so far, sitting at 18-5 and atop the standings in C-USA.
So let me explain the science. In 2003, I was searching for a way to scientifically measure the true performance value of college basketball players, knowing that a points-per-game average, for example, is often a deceiving statistic in that it can be artificially inflated by virtue of a player getting lots of minutes and/or taking lots of shots. Nevermind that the player may have also missed a lot of shots, or committed a number of turnovers and fouls.
My challenge was to come up with a metric that considered all measured factors, as displayed in a box score, in order to truly measure a player’s total efficiency and effectiveness, and based this rating on a minutes-played basis. Since the data comes from the box score, it goes without saying that this measurement does not include such things as individual defensive stops. Shutting down an opponent’s best scorer, for example, is an exceptionally valuable ability that will not necessarily show in the box score, except in some statistical ways, such as blocked shots or steals. Nor does a statistical measurement account for the “heart” of a player, which we all know can inspire a team in ways other than what shows up in the box score. But, still, it is interesting to be able to take box score data and give it an overall meaning that captures much of what happens on a basketball court.
For the statistic hounds in the room, the formula I landed on for measuring individual players is as follows:
BPI (Berg Performance Index) = ((FG made x 2) + 3-pt FG made + FT made + (rebounds ¸ 2) + assists + (blocks ¸ 2) + (steals ¸ 2) – FG missed – FT missed – (fouls committed ¸ 2) – turnovers ¸ 2)) ¸ minutes played x 4.
You can track this on a game-by-game basis, obviously, but you will often find dramatic swings in performance. Randy Culpepper, for example, has had individual game BPIs this year ranging from -14 to +172. Where BPI really becomes meaningful, then, is over the course of a season. Not surprisingly, the Miner leader so far this year is Derrick Caracter, with a BPI of 69.81. This is a solid score, in BPI terms, and if DC finishes the season at that mark, it would give him the seventh best Miner BPI since minutes became a statistic in 1980 .
In simple terms, this is a great UTEP team, performing at a very high level. We can be proud and should be excited about this group of young men, and hope that they can continue to play at the level we have seen so far this year. And don’t forget about next season, when every player will be eligible to be back.